Trump says the war with Iran is almost over, while senior aides reportedly warn it could drag on beyond his term.

President Donald Trump has said the war with Iran will end “immediately after” the November midterm elections, although senior White House advisers have privately discussed the possibility that the conflict could last into 2029 and beyond his presidency.

The gap between public statements and internal assessments has heightened scrutiny of the administration as it fights a war now in its seventh month, with oil prices topping $100 a barrel and cost-of-living concerns weighing heavily on political conversations. On September 9, Brent crude oil was trading at $101.21 per barrel and WTI crude oil was trading at $96.05 per barrel.

A growing gap between public optimism and private caution

The war began on Feb. 28 after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites prompted Iran to impose ever-tighter restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping chokepoints.

Since then, Trump has repeatedly offered varying predictions about how long the war will last, saying at various points that fighting will last “several weeks,” is already “over” or could go on “forever.”

Now, according to U.S. officials who spoke to The Wall Street Journal, Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the president in Oval Office and Situation Room meetings that Tehran could withstand U.S. military and economic pressure long enough for the conflict to last beyond Inauguration Day in January 2029. Reuters also reported that advisers had privately warned Trump that the conflict could last until the end of his presidency.

Additionally, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has extended the deployment of some U.S. troops in the Middle East until 2027, with the deployment of Patriot air defense systems also expected to continue.

This internal picture contradicts Trump’s latest public promise. Speaking to reporters before flying to Dallas, he said: “I think the war will end right after the election because they can’t hold out any longer. They are desperately trying to influence the election.”

He portrayed the conflict as an attempt by Iran to influence the vote, accusing Tehran of trying to provide a “more favorable political environment” in the United States.

Oil Spikes and Mid-Term Anxiety

The political stakes are high. On September 9, Brent crude settled at $101.21 a barrel, its highest level since late May, following new attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s expansion of the exclusion zone around the Strait of Hormuz.

US WTI crude oil closed at $96.05, also a peak not seen since May. The Strait of Hormuz is a major oil transit route, with flows through the waterway sharply reduced amid the conflict.

For voters, that means higher gas bills and broader inflation pressures, issues that polling shows are at the top of medium-term concerns. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 48% of Americans said the cost of living would be the most important factor in deciding how to vote in the 2026 midterm elections, while Democrats held an eight-point lead over Republicans on the issue.

Trump has repeatedly pushed back against Democratic claims that his policies have worsened gasoline availability, while acknowledging that gasoline prices are unlikely to fall before the election.

Neither Vance nor Rubio has publicly confirmed whether they will seek the GOP nomination in two years, but both are widely discussed as potential GOP contenders in 2028.

Conflicting messages, familiar pattern

The latest reports follow a familiar pattern. Trump has repeatedly offered changing forecasts about how long the war will last, only to revise them as the fighting drags on.

This time, he tied the election results to the midterm elections, declaring at a rally in Dallas, “The war will end very soon after the election.” They’re hanging on for dear life, hoping we lose so they can take down the stupid, weak Democrats and get their nuke.”

Behind closed doors the tone is more cautious. U.S. officials said senior advisers were discussing scenarios in which fighting would continue beyond January 2029, with Tehran potentially able to withstand the blockade, military pressure and economic sanctions for longer than the White House has publicly anticipated.

The estimate, based on comments from U.S. officials in interviews with the magazine, is not a prediction that the war will necessarily last until 2029.

With oil hovering above $100 and supply disruptions mounting, the administration faces a delicate balancing act: reassuring a nervous electorate while avoiding over-promising on a timeline that its own officials have reportedly questioned.

How Trump manages these tensions between now and November could impact not only the midterm campaign but also the political landscape for those who follow him.