TOhey Statistics For United Airlines promotions Current price: $111.38 Target price (average): ~$120 Street target: ~$161 Potential total income: ~8% Annual internal rate of return: ~2%/year Now LIVE: Find out how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new valuation model (it’s free) >>> What’s happened? United Airlines (UAL) It closed at $111.38 on Sept. 4, making it virtually unchanged for the year from its December 2025 close of $111.82, according to TIKR. Behind that clean line is a volatile year and a business that kept moving. United raised its full-year forecast due to the multibillion-dollar fuel shock and on August 25 announced the largest international expansion in its history. At about 8.4 times forward earnings, United trades like an airline, still considered a cyclical commodity in the market, even as management projects the opposite scenario every quarter. The Street’s average target of around $161 suggests more than 40% upside potential, while TIKR’s proprietary model suggests the stock is close to a fair valuation. It’s all about the gap, and the August expansion gave investors a new reason to pick sides. United Airlines Drawdowns (TIKR) Check out United Airlines’ historical and forecast stock valuations (it’s free!) >>> An expansion that the market shrugged at United announced it would open 10 new international cities by 2027, eight of which no other U.S. airline serves nonstop, and unveiled an aircraft designed to make thin, long-haul routes profitable: the Airbus A321XLR. The narrowbody will begin transatlantic service on December 1 from Washington Dulles to Amsterdam and Dublin, before heading to Luxembourg, Toulouse, Ibiza, Valencia and Marseille until 2027. The A321XLR allows United to serve smaller markets that can’t justify a widebody jet, opening up routes where it has little direct competition. This is important because the international level is United’s best profit driver. The Atlantic region generated $11.6 billion in revenue in 2025, while the Pacific region generated $6.9 billion in revenue, according to the TIKR segment. In the second quarter, chief commercial officer Andrew Nocella said he expected international growth to outpace domestic growth for many years, calling the domestic market “much more mature.” Why premium rate is the real story United is filling new A321XLRs and its enlarged Boeing 787s with premium cabins faster than main cabin capacity, and the early price signal is strong. Asked how customers are reacting to the new fare structure, Nocella said the premium ticket sales rate is “much higher than I expected.” United plans to have a fleet of about 100 premium A321s by the end of the decade, which Nocella said is far more than any major competitor. It’s this premium package that allows United to raise fares without losing customers. In the second quarter, total revenue per available space mile increased 12.1% due to higher load factors. Management said fourth-quarter yields rose 19% year over year, compared with just 5% in the third quarter at the same point on the booking curve. CEO Scott Kirby attributed pricing power to the ongoing shift in the industry’s cost base, noting that “airport charges are up about 60% post-COVID” and arguing that labor and maintenance inflation is structurally higher for every carrier. His conclusion was blunt: “I think we are on track to achieve low double-digit margins without structural changes in the industry.” United absorbed $2.3 billion year-over-year from fuel problems in the second quarter, recovered about half on tariffs, and expects an 80% to 90% recovery in the third quarter and a full recovery by the fourth. If that’s the case, then the margin squeeze that investors are seeing today is the bottom. TIKR consensus data is consistent with normalized earnings per share rebounding from around $10 in 2026 to around $15 in 2027 as the transition completes and unit costs for larger aircraft decline. United’s forward EV/EBITDA valuation is pegged at 5.75x, near the bottom of the S&P 500, even though management insists profitability is structurally higher than the market believes. Kirby noted that four of the eight publicly traded U.S. carriers are likely to lose money this year, but United is valued in the same low-cost segment as carriers that are losing money. United Airlines NTM Price / Normalized Earnings (P/E) (TIKR) See how United Airlines stacks up against its competitors on TIKR (it’s free!) >>> Advanced analysis of the TIKR model Current price: $111.38 Target price (average): ~$120 Potential total income: ~8% Annual internal rate of return: ~2%/year United Airlines Advanced Valuation Model (TIKR) Check out analyst growth forecasts and price targets for United Airlines stock (free!) >>> Revenue growth is driven by two factors: international expansion increasing capacity in the Atlantic and Pacific regions, and changes in the premium segment mix as the A321XLR fleet and expanded 787 fleet add high-income seats faster than the main cabin. The main risk is the multiple itself: the average scenario assumes that the market will continue to value United at today’s depressed earnings multiple, rather than overvaluing it. On the other hand, if fuel normalizes and the premium strategy increases, then the high variant of the model will be significantly higher than the average. On the other hand, another fuel surge or performance struggle in centers such as Chicago or Los Angeles simultaneously leads to increased pressure. The Street Sees $161 Franchise; the model sees the stock price around $120. The gap depends entirely on whether airlines can maintain higher margin structures than ever before. Conclusion The next test is the third quarter print, expected in mid-October. Look at two numbers. The first is whether RASM growth will accelerate above 12% in the second quarter, as management has indicated, confirming that pricing power remains as tariffs rise. Second, will United confirm 80-90% fuel recovery as scheduled. Strip away both, and the marginally profitable story becomes a recovery story, backed by the largest route expansion in the company’s history, and 8x revenue starts to look like a mistake. Skip RASM or push back the fuel schedule again and market caution will look warranted. See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR. Should you invest in United Airlines? The only way to find out is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly this question. Stop United Airlinesand you’ll see historical financial performance over the years, what Wall Street analysts are expecting for revenue and earnings in the coming quarters, how valuation multiples have changed over time, and whether price targets are moving up or down. You can create a free watchlist to track United Airlines along with every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. You just need to decide the data yourself. Analyze United Airlines on TIKR for Free → Looking for new opportunities? Disclaimer: Please note that articles about TIKR are not intended to constitute investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, and are not recommendations to buy or sell any stock. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal investment data and analyst ratings. Our analysis may not include the latest company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thanks for reading and happy investing! Post navigation Transfer news: Borussia Dortmund midfielder Felix Nmecha is on Manchester United’s radar – Paper Talk POLL: Did you travel over Labor Day weekend?