A year after Charlie Kirk’s death, Turning Point plans to spend big on the midterm elections

A year later Following the murder of co-founder Charlie Kirk, Turning Point plans to invest tens of millions of dollars in the midterm elections to help Republican candidates in key congressional and gubernatorial races, according to people familiar with the matter.

The conservative grassroots group is expected to prioritize three states in the midterm elections — New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada — but will also send staffers to seven other states where Democrats could pick up seats.

The exact amounts could change, but sources tell WIRED that Turning Point’s super PAC plans to spend $15 million to $20 million on advertising in three priority states. Turning Point’s expenses for field operations are impossible to know because they are run by a 501(c)(4) nonprofit organization, but they are estimated to be tens of millions more.

The planned cash infusion will go toward both field operations and digital advertising, and will only give Republicans a funding advantage through a constellation of outside super PACs and party committees.

The most closely watched Republican race in New Hampshire is the Senate seat vacated by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, where former Republican Sen. John Sununu is running against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas to flip the seat.

The New Hampshire Senate race is a critical battleground for both parties, as many of the possible paths for Democrats to gain a Senate majority require the party to retain a seat that the Cook Political Report ranks as “Lean Democrat.”

“Turning Point” also focused particularly on the race for governor in Arizona, where Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs is running against Representative Andy Biggs, who has supported President Donald Trump’s claims of election fraud in the 2020 election.

The maneuvers come as Republican groups have launched a massive infusion of money to counter a wave of voter discontent over the Iran war and high prices, as well as growing Democratic dynamics that have opened up the possibility of a Democratic-controlled Senate.

Having faced criticism for lack of spending earlier, Trump’s political operation recently stepped up its game, spending $10 million on advertising in the Texas Senate race through Trump’s main super PAC, MAGA Inc. Most recently, Trump’s team used No Going Back PAC Inc, a new organization, to reserve at least $47 million in advertising in six Senate races and one House race.

The degree of coordination between Trump and MAGA Inc. with outside groups such as Turning Point is not entirely clear, but there has been extensive communication to coordinate which voters to reach, one of the people said.

And with many expecting the November midterm elections to be decided in part on turnout, Turning Point told the Trump orbit that a major focus of its field operation is reminding Trump supporters to vote on Election Day.

Unlike other super PACs, Turning Point has been a presidential-focused organization, and its mid-term strategy is actually an attempt to build the infrastructure for a Republican ticket in 2028, sources said.

The focus on New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada comes as Turning Point grapples with the fact that winning those states in 2028 would compensate Vice President J.D. Vance – or anyone else – for having to win traditional, so-called “blue wall” states.

You know what they say: the day after the midterm elections is the first day of the presidential election. Republicans are already campaigning.

Rock and hard place

With Trump’s approval rating now consistently at or below 40 percent, a historically dangerous level for midterm elections, Republicans face a dilemma about attending this week’s Republican “midterm convention” in Texas.

Although the party’s conventions are typically held only during presidential election years, Trump and other officials intend to lead the event in an effort to bolster vulnerable Republicans such as Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton and mobilize the electorate.